The Bleeding Edge

Today's Monterey Department of Public Health (DPH) report saw another big increase in cases: The orange line that's heading skyward is the seven day moving average. The dotted orange line is a linear fit to the data. It looks like we are in a period of at-least-exponential … [Read more...]

Yesterday I reported on the current doubling rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Monterey County. Here's the curve with today's data added: I was surprised to read this in yesterday's Monterey County Weekly: More than the number of cases, Moreno is watching the … [Read more...]

Some more big numbers from the Monterey County Department of public Health in the last few days. Here's what the case history looks like as of this morning's DPH report. The vertical axis is the number of cases reported per day. The raw daily numbers are the blue diamonds. … [Read more...]

For the last few days, the newspapers have been full of reports of a "second wave" of Covid-19 cases in some states. California has been mentioned as one of those states. Using the California Department of Public Health's numbers, I conclude that there is good news and bad … [Read more...]

Shockingly high daily reported case numbers from the Monterey County Department of public health: 61 cases reported yesterday, almost double the previous high day. Seven-day weighted moving average positivity ratio is now more that twice the statewide metric. 30 of the 61 cases … [Read more...]