The Bleeding Edge

In the current issue of the Carmel Pine Cone, there is an editorial that makes this point:   But one thing we’ve been warned about from the very beginning of this crisis, and which obviously still holds true, is that test results and case rates are inherently unreliable … [Read more...]

Today, I'm going to analyze the Covid-19 epidemic in California, using the stats supplied by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). In July, a series of CDPH errors resulted in the caseload being underreported, and correction of those errors resulted in overreporting … [Read more...]

The Monterey County DPH reported 788 Covid-19 test results for 8/7, 1066 test results for 8/8, and 1440 for yesterday, 8/9. That means that the processing bottleneck that was restricting reporting at a state level is beginning to be solved. Not only that, but the positivity rate … [Read more...]

Yesterday's Department of public health statistics show that cases may have peaked; But in Monterey County, the trend is still upwards: That is in spite of Monterey County doing less testing than the state as a whole: There appears to be a peak forming in … [Read more...]

Monterey County cases continue to climb:   But the doubling time is getting longer, which means were falling behind exponential growth -- a good thing. But the testing positivity rate is climbing, which means we're not testing enough:   The … [Read more...]