The Bleeding Edge

The case fatality rate (CFR), the number of people who have died from the Covid-19 over the number of people whose infection has been confirmed, has been falling for months. The demographics of the infected patients has been changing, too. The percentage of infected people … [Read more...]

We've seen a bit of caseload flattening in some of the south and southwest, but not in California or Monterey county. Here's a composite view, normalized for population: Here are the individual plots:     I've had some people tell me that the … [Read more...]

This morning's report for the Monterey County DPH shows 29 cases reported yesterday. That's much lower than we've been seeing for the last few days, but the 7-day moving average is still near its all-time high. The big surprise was the reporting of 19 new cases in the "other" zip … [Read more...]

Today, the Monterey County DPH reported the worst single-day case increase (by reporting day) yet: 123 new cases. The trend looks bad: The cases were mostly in Salinas, who had 60% of them> South County had 26%, and Peninsula/Big Sur and North County each had 7%. The … [Read more...]

The headline is the big news, but there should be an asterisk. Only five cases were reported the day before, so the average of the two days is a bit higher than we've been seeing. And yesterday's numbers were driven by increased testing. I'll explain: See that dot way … [Read more...]